Cigarette Prices and Smoking Experimentation among Zimbabwean children: a survival analysis of the 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe has a smoking prevalence of 11.7% among the adult population (15 years and older). Thus, in the absence of effective tobacco-control measures, the economic burden of tobacco use will be aggravated, especially considering the increasing tobacco industry activity in the country. Increasing cigarette prices is one possible strategy to reduce tobacco consumption. This study seeks to examine the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in Zimbabwe, thereby expanding the evidence base for the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: A survival analysis using the Zimbabwe 2014 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data. RESULTS: A 10% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability of experimenting with smoking by 9%. Also, children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have a smoking brother or father who smokes, or see teachers who smoke. The likelihood of experimenting with smoking is higher among boys than girls and is positively associated with age. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in Zimbabwe, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden. IMPLICATIONS: With the number of smokers in low- and middle-income countries expected to increase as the industry intensively expands its market by targeting the youth, increasing excise taxes will play a significant role in preventing children from initiating smoking and help those already using tobacco to quit. An increase in the excise tax increases the retail price of tobacco products, making them less affordable, and reduces the demand for them.

A Media Analysis of the COVID-19 Tobacco Sales Ban in South Africa.

The South African government introduced a nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Among other restrictions, the government banned the sale of tobacco products. The ban lasted for nearly five months. We performed a Google search using the keywords smok*, puff*, lockdown, tobacco, and cigarette* for articles published in English from 23 March 2020 to 18 December 2020. This yielded 441 usable online media articles. We identified and categorised the main arguments made by proponents and opponents of the tobacco sales ban. Three themes were identified: medical, legal, and economic/financial. Legal aspects were covered in 48% of articles, followed by economic (34%), and medical aspects (18%). The media was generally ambivalent about the tobacco sales ban during the first five weeks of lockdown. Sentiment subsequently turned against the ban because the medical rationale was not well communicated by the government. There was limited empirical evidence of a link between smoking and contracting COVID-19, and the sales ban was ineffective since most smokers still purchased cigarettes. Policy framing in the media plays an important role in how the public receives the policy. Any future tobacco control policy intervention should be better considered, especially within the context that cigarettes are easily accessed on the illicit market in South Africa.

Effect of price on the decision to experiment with cigarette smoking among Gambian children: a survival analysis using the Gambia 2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking experimentation among children in the Gambia, and thereby expanding the evidence base of the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low-income and middle-income countries. DESIGN: A survival analysis using the Gambia 2017 Global Youth Tobacco Survey data. SETTING: The Gambia. PARTICIPANTS: The survey sample was 12 585 youths, aged 12-17 years, but our analysis was restricted to 11 030 respondents with information on smoking status. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Our outcome variable was smoking experimentation defined as the first time the respondent smoked (at least part of) a cigarette. RESULTS: A 1% increase in the price of cigarettes reduces the probability to experiment with smoking by 0.7%. We also found that children are more likely to experiment with smoking if they have at least one smoking parent, friends who smoke and see teachers who smoke. The probability to experiment with cigarette smoking increases with age and is higher among boys than girls. CONCLUSION: There is strong evidence that increasing excise taxes can play an effective role in discouraging children from experimenting with cigarette smoking. Considering the relatively low excise tax burden in the Gambia, the government should consider substantially increasing the excise tax burden.

Estimating the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes in South Africa using the Deaton approach.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the price elasticity of demand for South Africa and thereby contribute to growing the evidence base of the likely impact of excise taxes on cigarette demand in low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: We employ the Deaton method, using wave 5 data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study, to estimate the cigarette price elasticity for South Africa. We used a sample of 6820 households. RESULTS: Of the 6 820 households in the sample for which we had sufficient data, 1341 (19.7%) spent money on tobacco. The price elasticity of demand for cigarettes is estimated at -0.86 (95% CI -1.37 to -0.35), implying that the demand for cigarettes in South Africa declines by 8.6% for every 10% increase in price. CONCLUSION: The negative price elasticity estimate for South Africa indicates that increases in the excise tax are particularly effective in controlling cigarette consumption. However, given the presence of a significant illicit tobacco market in the country, it is important that authorities augment tax measures with strategies that curb the illicit trade in cigarettes.

Tobacco farming and current debt status among smallholder farmers in Manicaland province in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe is the largest producer of tobacco leaf in Africa and the sixth largest globally. Tobacco leaf is a mainstay of the economy, accounting for about 10% of the country's GDP in 2018. METHODS: We use descriptive and regression analyses from a face-to-face survey of 381 smallholder farmers in three major tobacco-farming areas in Manicaland province to determine the prevalence of tobacco-related debt and some of its covariates. The survey was conducted in June and July 2019. RESULTS: 74% of respondents are contract farmers and 26% are independent farmers. 57% of respondents indicated that they were in tobacco-related debt. The likelihood of being in tobacco-related debt is significantly more than average for farmers with the following characteristics (holding other characteristics constant): being a contract farmer, having a larger farm, employing only family labour and not recording expenses (as a proxy for financial sophistication). 91% of contract farmers would prefer to be independent farmers, while 63% of independent farmers would prefer to be contract farmers. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence to suggest that tobacco growing, in its current state, has benefited the tobacco farmers in Manicaland province. Tobacco farmers are largely victims, rather than beneficiaries, of the sector. There is a strong case for government intervention to improve the conditions of tobacco farmers, either through direct intervention in the tobacco-growing sector, or by encouraging and promoting crop substitution.